Economic Shockwave: Envisioning 2025 with 1982-Style 18.6% Mortgage Rates

Jeffrey Goodman
8 min readDec 25, 2023

30Y in 30D • Y19. If mortgage rates rise anywhere close to 1982 levels, it makes the median-priced home 100% unaffordable to the median income U.S. family.

Photo by Andrey Metelev on Unsplash

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(Full list of “30 Years in 30 Days” Series articles at bottom of this article.)
• 30Y in 30D, Y18: U.S. Mortgages in 1982 vs. 2021 vs. 2023 — the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
• 30Y in 30D • Y16: The Total Cost of Ownership of Your House
Kickstarting “30 Years in 30 Days” — Decades of Mortgage Wisdom in 1 Month
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Median house prices were lower back in 1982.

$69,300 in 1982 vs. $420,000 today.

That’s dramatically lower, actually.

But 18% mortgage interest rates in late 1982 meant that even with the far lower median house price of $69,300, a homeowner’s monthly payments were high, and “Total Interest Paid” over the lifetime of the mortgage was shockingly high…even by today’s…

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Jeffrey Goodman

Navigating facts and numbers to help people. Strong opinions on climate change and healthcare. Objective, not neutral. MIT engineer, Wharton MBA.